Itron’s New Forecasting YouTube Library

Itron’s Forecasting group has conducted webinars on a variety of forecasting and load research-based topics for many years and continues to host new…


Timing is Everything

When evaluating peak loads, load forecasters commonly focus on the severity of peak producing weather, considering meteorological factors such as…


Forecasting is Hard – Especially for the Future

Predicting behavior in the future is no easy task. Yet, we energy forecasters do this every day. The complexity of the problem should not be…


Energy Forecasting 101 Workshop

New to energy forecasting? Itron can provide you with an introduction to the use of regression for forecasting applications, which is designed for…


Developing a Combined Operational Load Forecast

With the deep penetration of non-grid connected renewable generation and storage, electric vehicle charging, smart load control and time-of-use rates…


The Story is in the Residuals

In any field that involves heaps of data and information, details are everything. Load forecasting is no exception. If you’ve spent any amount of…


Rooftop Solar and Short-Term Models – Advanced Methods

Under a California Energy Commission (CEC) study, Itron evaluated alternative approaches to incorporating forecasts of behind-the-meter solar PV…


It’s a DER World, We’re Just Living in It

If you’re reading this and you’re a load forecaster like myself (or know a thing or two about load forecasting), then you are well aware of the…


Averaging the Weather First or Averaging the Energy Forecast

There is a question that has long vexed me: If we calculate a normal series of weather variables by averaging them first and running them through a…


Where Did Durbin and Watson Go Wrong?

I’m sure you have all been there—the spot where you mention autocorrelation and the Durbin-Watson statistic. I saw this recently in some testimony…


Holidays Are No Vacation for the Load Forecaster

Summer has arrived. While your friends are frolicking at the beach, you are struggling in a darkened cubicle to ensure that the load forecast…


Dates and Serial Numbers: Might As Well Leap

In Excel and MetrixND, dates are actually serial numbers. This is obvious in Excel when you format a cell containing a date as a number. In the…


When is the R² Not the R²?

A recently received support email contains a riddle. “When I build a regression model in Excel and remove the intercept, I get a different R²…


Improving Financial Analysis with AMI Data

Smart meter data is more granular and more timely than monthly billing data. Access to this data supports a paradigm shift in forecasting processes,…


A Few Thoughts on P-Values

I recently read an article about P-Values that led to some discussion with my Itron colleagues, along with some thoughts on the matter. In the…


2019 Annual Energy Forecasting Meeting

Two pre-conference classes. Three conference days. Eighteen industry presentations. Forty-nine companies. Sixty-nine attendees. These are…


Developing Net Load Uncertainty Forecasts to Support System Operations

Today, the deep penetration of renewable generation resources system operators are requiring new tools to place reasonable confidence bands around…


It’s All the Same, Only the Names Will Change

Last year, Itron was contracted by a small utility (about 11,000 customers) to construct a 10-year-ahead load forecast for capacity planning. I was…


Capped vs. Uncapped Degree Days

In energy modeling, we often utilize spline variables to capture the non-linear relationship between consumption and temperature. These variables…


Leveraging a Waterfall Approach to Explain the Load Forecast

Our first brown bag seminar of the year is entitled “Leveraging a Waterfall Approach to Explain the Load Forecast”. This session introduces a…


Odds and Sods

Probabilities and odds express the same information in different ways. In science and economics, people tend to think in terms of probabilities,…


What are Weather Groups?

If you’re a user of Itron’s Automated Demand Forecasting System, MetrixIDR, then chances are you’ve probably seen the words “Weather Groups” at some…


A Simple Approach for Addressing Behind-the-Meter Solar Generation

I was recently asked to account for behind-the-meter (BTM) solar generation in a set of day-ahead hourly electric models. Fundamentally, the problem…


Daylight Saving Time: The Bane of the Load Forecaster

Sunrise and sunset times vary from summer to winter because of earth’s tilt with respect to its orbit around the sun. This difference is magnified at…


Ignore Missing Option

The Sum function in MetrixND seems like a complex way to make adding difficult. In a MetrixND transformation, numbers are added by joining variables…


Using Neural Networks to Build Robust Hourly Models

Our first brown bag seminar of the year is entitled, “Using Neural Networks to Build Robust Hourly Models.” Neural networks are flexible functional…


Calculating an Average Annual Growth Rate in MetrixND

After finishing my forecast, I like to present forecast average annual growth rates.  These results are calculated by converting the monthly forecast…


Seasonal Sales? Not a Problem.

There is a client who has a reporting issue problem. Let’s call him Ray. His annual sales are to be split into summer and winter sales, but on a…


Forecast Tests in MetrixND

Out-of-sample tests are a useful tool for seeing how well a model performs with data it hasn’t seen before (i.e., data that weren’t used to estimate…


Creating a Nonlinear Growth Variable

I love straight lines. After all, the fastest route between any two points is a straight line. But in forecasting, going from point A to point B…


The Difference Between AR(1) and Lagged Dependent Terms

Recently, a utilities regulator tried replicating a client’s regression model used for forecasting customer growth. The regulator wished to build the…


Using In-Line Transformation in the Report Object

  I’m developing a forecast that requires base, high, and low scenarios.  After building the base scenario, the high and low scenarios are…


The First MetrixND Newsletter

I stumbled across the first MetrixND newsletter today. In July 1998, Regional Economic Research (RER) was preparing users for the MetrixND 1.2…