Today, the deep penetration of renewable generation resources system operators are requiring new tools to place reasonable confidence bands around the Net Load forecasts driving operational decisions. In many cases, separate vendors are used to supply real-time forecasts of load and grid-connected solar and wind generation. With multiple vendors, each utilizing a different meteorological forecast, it is unclear how to incorporate uncertainty about loads with the uncertainty about the solar and wind generation forecasts.
For more information, download a paper that presents a general, unifying statistical framework for developing Net Load forecast uncertainty bands that account for load and generation forecast uncertainty.
This statistical approach is based on Professor Robert F. Engle’s seminal paper, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation, Econometric 50(4): 987-1008. 1982