A Few Thoughts on P-Values

I recently read an article about P-Values that led to some discussion with my Itron colleagues, along with some thoughts on the matter. In the…


Capped vs. Uncapped Degree Days

In energy modeling, we often utilize spline variables to capture the non-linear relationship between consumption and temperature. These variables…


Odds and Sods

Probabilities and odds express the same information in different ways. In science and economics, people tend to think in terms of probabilities,…


A Simple Approach for Addressing Behind-the-Meter Solar Generation

I was recently asked to account for behind-the-meter (BTM) solar generation in a set of day-ahead hourly electric models. Fundamentally, the problem…


Daylight Saving Time: The Bane of the Load Forecaster

Sunrise and sunset times vary from summer to winter because of earth’s tilt with respect to its orbit around the sun. This difference is magnified at…


Using the Right Weather Data

I recently reviewed a customer’s monthly weather normalization model. The regression model included cooling degree days (CDD), heating degree days…