Averaging the Weather First or Averaging the Energy Forecast

There is a question that has long vexed me: If we calculate a normal series of weather variables by averaging them first and running them through a…


Holidays Are No Vacation for the Load Forecaster

Summer has arrived. While your friends are frolicking at the beach, you are struggling in a darkened cubicle to ensure that the load forecast…


Dates and Serial Numbers: Might As Well Leap

In Excel and MetrixND, dates are actually serial numbers. This is obvious in Excel when you format a cell containing a date as a number. In the…


A Few Thoughts on P-Values

I recently read an article about P-Values that led to some discussion with my Itron colleagues, along with some thoughts on the matter. In the…


Capped vs. Uncapped Degree Days

In energy modeling, we often utilize spline variables to capture the non-linear relationship between consumption and temperature. These variables…


Odds and Sods

Probabilities and odds express the same information in different ways. In science and economics, people tend to think in terms of probabilities,…


A Simple Approach for Addressing Behind-the-Meter Solar Generation

I was recently asked to account for behind-the-meter (BTM) solar generation in a set of day-ahead hourly electric models. Fundamentally, the problem…


Daylight Saving Time: The Bane of the Load Forecaster

Sunrise and sunset times vary from summer to winter because of earth’s tilt with respect to its orbit around the sun. This difference is magnified at…


Using the Right Weather Data

I recently reviewed a customer’s monthly weather normalization model. The regression model included cooling degree days (CDD), heating degree days…