When is the R² Not the R²?
A recently received support email contains a riddle. “When I build a regression model in Excel and remove the intercept, I get a different R²…
2019 Annual Energy Forecasting Meeting
Two pre-conference classes. Three conference days. Eighteen industry presentations. Forty-nine companies. Sixty-nine attendees. These are…
2018 EFG Meeting Summary
Sometimes when I sit back and consider all the things that need to be done, I feel overwhelmed. The endless demands for regular work—like producing…
Ignore Missing Option
The Sum function in MetrixND seems like a complex way to make adding difficult. In a MetrixND transformation, numbers are added by joining variables…
Dividing Two Interval Series in MetrixLT
In my previous post, I showed that MetrixLT can multiply two hourly data series even though the software was not designed for that specific purpose.…
Multiplying Two Interval Series in MetrixLT
“Help” was the desperate cry of a MetrixLT user after the close of the workday. “I need to multiply two hourly interval data series in MetrixLT!”…
Calculating an Average Annual Growth Rate in MetrixND
After finishing my forecast, I like to present forecast average annual growth rates. These results are calculated by converting the monthly forecast…
Using the Simulation Object Backward
I’m using the Simulation Object in MetrixND to weather normalize historic sales. When configured, the object allows me to simulate the model…
Looking Backward to Move Forward
For most things in life, I look forward to go forward. I keep my eyes on the road ahead. I look before I leap. I aim at my target. But this summer…
Seasonal Sales? Not a Problem.
There is a client who has a reporting issue problem. Let’s call him Ray. His annual sales are to be split into summer and winter sales, but on a…
Common Challenges at the Energy Forecasters Meeting
Turning to her left, then right, Grace finds herself surrounded by strangers – men and women from across the United States; there’s even one from…
A Grand View
The view from the 96th floor of the John Hancock Center is amazing. From here, cars are merely dots between the straight rows of lights and people…
The Economy and Electric Sales
Traditionally, the end of the year is a time to reflect and remember. So when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in December as a vote of…
The BX Tab
MetrixND provides several options for determining whether a variable is useful. Typically, a model builder reviews the variable coefficients,…
Declining Residential Sales?
In the past three months, I’ve received three questions, all the same, “Why are my residential sales down?” There are several reasons why a company…
2016 Energy Forecasters Meeting
From May 18 to 20, 62 energy forecasters representing 42 companies from across North America gathered in Scottsdale, Arizona to discuss the latest…
Developing the Peak Day Dataset Using MetrixLT
I think of MetrixLT as a fancy load shape manipulator and calculator. While the software was originally designed to calibrate load shapes to monthly…
Creating a Nonlinear Growth Variable
I love straight lines. After all, the fastest route between any two points is a straight line. But in forecasting, going from point A to point B…
Finding the Right Tool
My desire to make popcorn for the evening of binge watching came to a sudden halt when the microwave door latch stuck. Undeterred by this setback, I…
Are SAE Models Accurate?
If you follow Itron’s forecasting work, you know that we’ve employed Statistically Adjusted End Use (SAE) models since the early 2000’s. To date,…
Using In-Line Transformation in the Report Object
I’m developing a forecast that requires base, high, and low scenarios. After building the base scenario, the high and low scenarios are…
Lessons Learned from Itron’s 13th Annual Energy Forecasting Meeting
I just returned from Itron’s 13th Annual Energy Forecasting Meeting & Training, which took place in Baltimore on May 6 and 7, 2015. A total of…
Energy Impacts of the Internet of Things
At the Itron Utility Week 2014 Conference, I reported on Itron’s foray into the Internet of Things (IoT) with the new Riva platform. Now that I am…
The Power of Prices
It’s 3 p.m. on a warm summer San Diego afternoon. My south facing windows are hot to the touch, but the building air conditioning units efficiently…
Internet of Things (IoT), the Cloud, Edge Analytics…
As my eyes wandered through the Knowledge Center at this year’s recent Itron Utility Week (IUW), I was captivated by the future. Stretching…
The First MetrixND Newsletter
I stumbled across the first MetrixND newsletter today. In July 1998, Regional Economic Research (RER) was preparing users for the MetrixND 1.2…
Are Utility Sales Trending Up?
Just the other day, I saw a news article that raised the question of whether utilities' sales are trending up. Considering the reports from EIA and…
Tips & Tricks: Creating an Index in MetrixND
Comparing multiple economic drivers in MetrixND can be difficult when the data series are developed in different units. Employment, reported in…
The Solar Lease Deal
Working in the energy industry puts a big target on your chest when it comes to solar leasing deals. In the span of weeks, I have had several friends…