Rooftop Solar and Short-Term Models – Advanced Methods

Under a California Energy Commission (CEC) study, Itron evaluated alternative approaches to incorporating forecasts of behind-the-meter solar PV…


The Mile-High 2019 ISO Forecasting Summit

They have a saying in Denver – “If you don’t like the weather, wait five minutes.” While that is clearly an exaggeration, it’s not too far off from…


Improving Financial Analysis with AMI Data

Smart meter data is more granular and more timely than monthly billing data. Access to this data supports a paradigm shift in forecasting processes,…


A Few Thoughts on P-Values

I recently read an article about P-Values that led to some discussion with my Itron colleagues, along with some thoughts on the matter. In the…


2019 Annual Energy Forecasting Meeting

Two pre-conference classes. Three conference days. Eighteen industry presentations. Forty-nine companies. Sixty-nine attendees. These are…


Developing Net Load Uncertainty Forecasts to Support System Operations

Today, the deep penetration of renewable generation resources system operators are requiring new tools to place reasonable confidence bands around…


It’s All the Same, Only the Names Will Change

Last year, Itron was contracted by a small utility (about 11,000 customers) to construct a 10-year-ahead load forecast for capacity planning. I was…


Capped vs. Uncapped Degree Days

In energy modeling, we often utilize spline variables to capture the non-linear relationship between consumption and temperature. These variables…


Leveraging a Waterfall Approach to Explain the Load Forecast

Our first brown bag seminar of the year is entitled “Leveraging a Waterfall Approach to Explain the Load Forecast”. This session introduces a…


When Does Humidity Make the Meter Spin?

For anyone that has tried to improve a model by changing the specification, you know it is very much a trial and error process. You create variables…


A Practitioner’s Guide to Short-term Load Forecast Modeling

Over the years, numerous clients have requested a “recipe book” for building powerful short-term load forecast models. This guide to Short-term Load…


Short-term Load Forecasting: A Practitioner’s Handbook

Our final brown bag seminar of the year—hosted on Tuesday, Dec. 4—is entitled “Short-term Load Forecasting: A Practitioner’s Handbook.” Ever wonder…


America’s Finest 2018 ISO Forecasting Summit

San Diego’s slogan is “America’s Finest City” and being fortunate enough to call this place my home for the past seven years, I see why. It has a…


2018 EFG Meeting Summary

Sometimes when I sit back and consider all the things that need to be done, I feel overwhelmed. The endless demands for regular work—like producing…


Upcoming Seminar: Budget Forecasting – A Practitioner’s Handbook

Our second brown bag seminar of the year is entitled “Budget Forecasting – A Practitioner’s Handbook.” This Brown Bag distills twenty-plus years of…


Using Neural Networks to Build Robust Hourly Models

Our first brown bag seminar of the year is entitled, “Using Neural Networks to Build Robust Hourly Models.” Neural networks are flexible functional…


Calculating an Average Annual Growth Rate in MetrixND

After finishing my forecast, I like to present forecast average annual growth rates.  These results are calculated by converting the monthly forecast…


Using the Simulation Object Backward

I’m using the Simulation Object in MetrixND to weather normalize historic sales. When configured, the object allows me to simulate the model…


Computing a Weighted Average Wind Speed and Wind Direction Across Multiple Weather Stations

Often when we are developing weather variables to support day-ahead power and gas forecasting, we introduce wind speed as a standalone explanatory…


Looking Backward to Move Forward

For most things in life, I look forward to go forward. I keep my eyes on the road ahead. I look before I leap. I aim at my target. But this summer…


Remember the 2017 ISO Forecasting Summit

This year’s 11th Annual ISO/RTO/TSO Forecasting Summit was held in San Antonio, Texas from May 16-18. Just like the defenders of the Alamo banded…


Common Challenges at the Energy Forecasters Meeting

Turning to her left, then right, Grace finds herself surrounded by strangers – men and women from across the United States; there’s even one from…


A Grand View

The view from the 96th floor of the John Hancock Center is amazing. From here, cars are merely dots between the straight rows of lights and people…


Who is Forecasting Long-Term Solar Generation?

In this last forecasting brown bag presentation on solar load forecasting, we asked participants who had developed a long-term solar load forecast…


Developing the Peak Day Dataset Using MetrixLT

I think of MetrixLT as a fancy load shape manipulator and calculator. While the software was originally designed to calibrate load shapes to monthly…


Creating a Nonlinear Growth Variable

I love straight lines. After all, the fastest route between any two points is a straight line. But in forecasting, going from point A to point B…


The Difference Between AR(1) and Lagged Dependent Terms

Recently, a utilities regulator tried replicating a client’s regression model used for forecasting customer growth. The regulator wished to build the…