Computing a Weighted Average Wind Speed and Wind Direction Across Multiple Weather Stations

Often when we are developing weather variables to support day-ahead power and gas forecasting, we introduce wind speed as a standalone explanatory…


Looking Backward to Move Forward

For most things in life, I look forward to go forward. I keep my eyes on the road ahead. I look before I leap. I aim at my target. But this summer…


Remember the 2017 ISO Forecasting Summit

This year’s 11th Annual ISO/RTO/TSO Forecasting Summit was held in San Antonio, Texas from May 16-18. Just like the defenders of the Alamo banded…


Common Challenges at the Energy Forecasters Meeting

Turning to her left, then right, Grace finds herself surrounded by strangers – men and women from across the United States; there’s even one from…


A Grand View

The view from the 96th floor of the John Hancock Center is amazing. From here, cars are merely dots between the straight rows of lights and people…


Who is Forecasting Long-Term Solar Generation?

In this last forecasting brown bag presentation on solar load forecasting, we asked participants who had developed a long-term solar load forecast…


Developing the Peak Day Dataset Using MetrixLT

I think of MetrixLT as a fancy load shape manipulator and calculator. While the software was originally designed to calibrate load shapes to monthly…


Creating a Nonlinear Growth Variable

I love straight lines. After all, the fastest route between any two points is a straight line. But in forecasting, going from point A to point B…


The Difference Between AR(1) and Lagged Dependent Terms

Recently, a utilities regulator tried replicating a client’s regression model used for forecasting customer growth. The regulator wished to build the…