Odds and Sods

Probabilities and odds express the same information in different ways. In science and economics, people tend to think in terms of probabilities,…


What are Weather Groups?

If you’re a user of Itron’s Automated Demand Forecasting System, MetrixIDR, then chances are you’ve probably seen the words “Weather Groups” at some…


A Simple Approach for Addressing Behind-the-Meter Solar Generation

I was recently asked to account for behind-the-meter (BTM) solar generation in a set of day-ahead hourly electric models. Fundamentally, the problem…


Daylight Saving Time: The Bane of the Load Forecaster

Sunrise and sunset times vary from summer to winter because of earth’s tilt with respect to its orbit around the sun. This difference is magnified at…


Ignore Missing Option

The Sum function in MetrixND seems like a complex way to make adding difficult. In a MetrixND transformation, numbers are added by joining variables…


Using Neural Networks to Build Robust Hourly Models

Our first brown bag seminar of the year is entitled, “Using Neural Networks to Build Robust Hourly Models.” Neural networks are flexible functional…


Calculating an Average Annual Growth Rate in MetrixND

After finishing my forecast, I like to present forecast average annual growth rates.  These results are calculated by converting the monthly forecast…


Seasonal Sales? Not a Problem.

There is a client who has a reporting issue problem. Let’s call him Ray. His annual sales are to be split into summer and winter sales, but on a…


Forecast Tests in MetrixND

Out-of-sample tests are a useful tool for seeing how well a model performs with data it hasn’t seen before (i.e., data that weren’t used to estimate…


Creating a Nonlinear Growth Variable

I love straight lines. After all, the fastest route between any two points is a straight line. But in forecasting, going from point A to point B…


The Difference Between AR(1) and Lagged Dependent Terms

Recently, a utilities regulator tried replicating a client’s regression model used for forecasting customer growth. The regulator wished to build the…


Using In-Line Transformation in the Report Object

  I’m developing a forecast that requires base, high, and low scenarios.  After building the base scenario, the high and low scenarios are…


The First MetrixND Newsletter

I stumbled across the first MetrixND newsletter today. In July 1998, Regional Economic Research (RER) was preparing users for the MetrixND 1.2…